Every Monday, we select 2-3 questions from the community forecasting platform Metaculus. In each volume, we present the question and provide commentary and critique on its wording. We also review and comment on the current community predictions before ultimately formulating our own forecast. Every question we select is intended to carry some degree of geopolitical significance.
We forecasted a 30% chance the US returns to the JCPOA in 2021, but what if we were very, VERY wrong? What would that look like? We made our first pre-mortem to gain insight.
Volume 17 of Metaculus Mondays: Iran Nuclear Deal; Russo-Ukrainian War; Israel-Gaza Conflict; North Korea ICBM Tests; Xinjiang Camps; and Yemen Civil War.
In volume 16 of Metaculus Mondays, we review past forecasts on the Israel-Palestine conflict, lab leak hypothesis, US' return to the JCPOA, Scottish independence, and Saudi-Israeli normalization.
In this special crossover episode of Metaculus Mondays and the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast, we forecast the future of the 2021 Israel-Palestine crisis.
In this week’s volume we are going back to recast three forecasts from past Metaculus Mondays volumes, sharing them on Good Judgement Open, and previewing two new forecasts for next week!
Forecasting whether the Five Eyes and Quad countries boycott the 2022 Beijing Olympics, China closes the Uyghur Camps in 2021, and China lands the next person on the moon.