On the Wrong Side of Maybe with the Iran Nuclear Deal
We forecasted a 30% chance the US returns to the JCPOA in 2021, but what if we were very, VERY wrong? What would that look like? We made our first pre-mortem to gain insight.
Metaculus Mondays
Every Monday, we select 2-3 questions from the community forecasting platform Metaculus. In each volume, we present the question and provide commentary and critique on its wording. We also review and comment on the current community predictions before ultimately formulating our own forecast. Every question we select is intended to carry some degree of geopolitical significance.
18 posts
Updates and Recasts: Iran Nuclear Deal, Russo-Ukrainian War, Israel-Gaza Conflict, and More
Volume 17 of Metaculus Mondays: Iran Nuclear Deal; Russo-Ukrainian War; Israel-Gaza Conflict; North Korea ICBM Tests; Xinjiang Camps; and Yemen Civil War.
Updates and Recasts: From Israel-Palestine to Lab Leak and Everything in-Between
In volume 16 of Metaculus Mondays, we review past forecasts on the Israel-Palestine conflict, lab leak hypothesis, US' return to the JCPOA, Scottish independence, and Saudi-Israeli normalization.
?️Forecasting the future of the 2021 Israel-Palestine Crisis
In this special crossover episode of Metaculus Mondays and the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast, we forecast the future of the 2021 Israel-Palestine crisis.
400 Million Nigerians by 2050? Scottish Indepdence by 2025? North Korea Missile Test by 2022?
Volume 14 of Metaculus Mondays: Scottish Independence by 2024? North Korea ICBM Test by 2022? 400M Nigerians by 2050?
Will Scotland Hold an Independence Referendum by 2024? Plus EU Borrowing and Yemen Civil War
Will Scotland Hold an Independence Referendum by 2024? Also forecasting whether the EU borrows >€50B in 2027 and the future of the Yemen Civil War.
Forecasting the Future of the Russo-Ukrainian War, Saudi-Israeli Relations, and JCPOA
The future of the Russo-Ukrainian War and the US’ return to JCPOA? Also forecasting whether Saudi Arabia and Israel normalize relations in 2021.
Will Intense Fighting Resume in the Russo-Ukrainian War by October?
Volume 11 of Metaculus Mondays: Amid rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine and an increasing troop build up, is the conflict about to intensify?
? Recast Edition: 2022 Olympic Boycott, North Korea ICBM Test, COVID-19 Origins
In this week’s volume we are going back to recast three forecasts from past Metaculus Mondays volumes, sharing them on Good Judgement Open, and previewing two new forecasts for next week!
China Special: 2022 Olympic Boycott, Closing Uyghur Camps, Next Person on Moon
Forecasting whether the Five Eyes and Quad countries boycott the 2022 Beijing Olympics, China closes the Uyghur Camps in 2021, and China lands the next person on the moon.
How We Planned to Forecast the Suez Canal Crisis
In this week's episode of Metaculus Mondays, we review how we would have forecasted the end of the Suez Canal Crisis caused by the Ever Given ship.
Special Volume: Updating and Reviewing our 15+ Prior Forecasts
Updating every prediction from the Metaculus Mondays series so far to challenge past beliefs and bolster future predictions.