Russo-Ukrainian War: Forecasts and Resources
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Historical: Will Russia Invade Ukraine?

Historical crowd forecasts and resources on whether Russia would invade Ukraine.

✅ YES: Hypermind

  • Asks whether Russia will invade Ukraine by the end of March, 2022. Invasion counts as the Russian army hostilely entering Ukraine, unless it only takes place in airspace.

✅ YES: Good Judgment Inc. (superforecasters)

  • Asks whether Russia will invade Ukraine by the end of May, 2022. Invasion counts as NATO or a NATO-member state accusing Russia of such an action. Above probability is reached by aggregating the three different available options (Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts only; Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts as well as other Ukrainian territory; or other Ukrainian territory only).

✅ YES: Good Judgment Open

  • Same as above.

✅ YES: INFER (formerly CSET-Fortell)

  • Asks whether Russia will invade Ukraine by the end of December, 2022. Invasion counts if more than 50,000 Russian troops participate.

✅ YES: Metaculus

  • Asks whether Russia will invade Ukraine by the end of December, 2022. Invasion counts if either (a) Russia declares they have invaded or (b) Two of the following countries declare they have–United States, United Kingdom, France, China, Russia. An invasion does not count if the invasion is contained to the Russian-occupied portions of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts.

You can also find similar questions on:

Where will Russia invade Ukraine?

Good Judgment Inc. (superforecasters)

  • ✅ YES: Invading the Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts as well as other Ukrainian territory
  • 0%: Invading the Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts only
  • 0%: Invading Ukrainian territory outside of Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts only
Credit: Wikipedia

Good Judgment Open

  • ✅ YES: Invading the Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts as well as other Ukrainian territory
  • 0%: Invading the Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts only
  • 0%: Invading Ukrainian territory outside of Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts only

Metaculus

Historical Data

Written Invasion Predictions

Notes on Forecasting the Invasion of Ukraine
Should we have seen it coming more clearly?
February 25, 2022
900+ Forecasters on Whether Russia Will Invade Ukraine
by Gaia Dempsey, CEO at Metaculus
February 18, 2022
Will Putin cross the Rubicon in Ukraine?
It looks increasingly likely that Donbas is where things will start. But will they end there?
February 18, 2022
Will Russia Invade Ukraine?
If we act like we’re going to war, we’re probably going to war
February 13, 2022
Will Russia Invade Ukraine (Again)? - Good Judgment
Will Russia Invade Ukraine (Again)? Superforecasters’ View Since November 2021, Good Judgment’s Superforecasters have been closely monitoring the situation on the Russia-Ukraine border. They did so the way they approach any forecasting question—by doing extensive research on publicly available data…
February 8, 2022
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