Feb 17, 2022 4 min read

Russo-Ukrainian War: Forecasts and Resources

Russo-Ukrainian War: Forecasts and Resources

Useful resources on Russia's war against Ukraine, including forecasts, information sources, and analyses.

All recorded forecasts are updated weekly. Get the latest signals on the conflict by following @WarSignals on Twitter.

Newsletters

The Constraints on Peace in the Russo-Ukrainian War
The factors driving the likelihood of a peace deal.
March 16, 2022
Don’t Ignore the Consequences of Great Power Conflict
12 days into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, we begin forecasting.
March 7, 2022

Political Forecasts

End of Conflict

Forecast Links

  • In 2022, will the legitimate government of Ukraine recognize Russia's annexation of Crimea? (Hypermind)
  • Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023? (Metaculus)
  • Will Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023? (Metaculus)
  • In 2022, will the legitimate government of Ukraine recognize one or more independent countries in the Donbas region? (Hypermind)

Will Zelensky stay in power?

Forecasts

Will Putin stay in power?

Forecasts

Other


Military Forecasts

Russia-NATO

  • Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023? Metaculus
  • Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023? Metaculus
  • Will any NATO member country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022? Polymarket
  • Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022? Metaculus
  • In 2022, will NATO invoke its Article 5 on collective defense? Hypermind
  • Between 4 February 2022 and 31 December 2022, will a country formally progress in the NATO accession process? GJ Open
  • Between 11 February 2022 and 31 December 2022, will a country formally progress in the NATO accession process? GJI
  • Will NATO expand in 2022? Polymarket

Will Russia recognize 🇲🇩 Transnistria?

Forecasts

  • Will Russia officially recognize Transnistria in Moldova as an independent state before 1 August 2022? (GJ Inc)
  • Will Russia officially recognize Transnistria in Moldova as an independent state before 1 August 2022? (GJ Open)
  • Will Russia recognize Transnistria as an independent territory by Dec 31, 2022? (Metaculus)

Will Russia invade elsewhere?

  • Before January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus? (Metaculus)
  • Will Russian troops invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia prior to 2024? (Metaculus)
  • Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022? (Metaculus)
  • Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022? (Metaculus)

WMDs / Nuclear Weapons

  • Before 5 August 2022, will Russia detonate a nuclear device outside of Russian territory or airspace? GJ Open
  • Will a nuclear weapon be launched in combat in 2022? Manifold
  • In 2022, will a nuclear weapon be used to kill? Hypermind
  • Will an offensive nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024? Metaculus (note, there is limited access on who can view this question)
  • Will the United States accuse Russia of having used chemical or biological weapons in Ukraine before July? (Hypermind)

War Deaths

Forecasts

  • Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022? (Metaculus)
  • Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022? (Metaculus)
  • Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022? (Metaculus)
  • Will more than 100,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022? (Metaculus)

Economic Forecasts

Russian Sanctions and Economy

Russian Cyberwarfare

33%: Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023? (Metaculus)

Other Forecasts

  • Cyberattack on US Finance Systems (Metaculus)
  • Cyberattack on US Communications (Metaculus)
  • Cyberattack on US Transport Systems (Metaculus)
  • Cyberattack on US Medical Systems (Metaculus)
  • Cyberattack on US Security/EMS (Metaculus)
  • Cyberattack on US Electric Grid (Metaculus)
  • Cyberattack on US Oil/Gas Infrastructure (Metaculus)

US Markets and Inflation

Global Markets and Inflation


Twitter Lists

Have a good Twitter list? Reach out to us on Twitter!

Curated Signals @WarSignals


Resolved: Will Russia invade Ukraine?

This information can now be find on here.

Will Russia Invade Ukraine in 2022?
Historical crowd forecasts and resources on whether Russia would invade Ukraine.
Clay Graubard
Clay majored in Economics and International Relations (IR) at the University of Pennsylvania, and is pursuing a master's in IR at Oxford.

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