? A Conversation on Media Narratives and Forecasting the Russo-Ukrainian Crisis with Maxim Lott
Maxim Lott on media narratives and the military, political, and economic situation in Russia in the Russo-Ukrainian War.
Russo-Ukrainian War
Forecasts, analysis, and podcasts by Global Guessing on the Russo-Ukrainian War (2014 - ). We also have other resources, including aggregated crowd predictions form a variety of platforms and curated signals about the conflict.
10 posts
The Constraints on Peace
21 days after Russia invaded Ukraine, what is the likelihood of a peace deal in the near-future and what factors are driving the forecast?
Russia-Ukraine Commodities Monitor 001: Wheat and Aluminum
Welcome to the Global Guessing Russia-Ukraine Commodities Monitor (RUCM): Forecasts on Russia-Ukraine and their impact on commodities.
You Can't Ignore the Consequences of Great Power Conflict
Twelve days into Russia's invasion of Ukraine, we begin our effort forecasting the war.
Russo-Ukrainian War: Forecasts and Resources
Useful resources on Russia's war against Ukraine, including forecasts, information sources, and analyses.
Updates and Recasts: Iran Nuclear Deal, Russo-Ukrainian War, Israel-Gaza Conflict, and More
Volume 17 of Metaculus Mondays: Iran Nuclear Deal; Russo-Ukrainian War; Israel-Gaza Conflict; North Korea ICBM Tests; Xinjiang Camps; and Yemen Civil War.
Michael Hilliard on Afghanistan, Donbass, Beijing Olympics, and The Red Line Podcast
What can we expect to happen in Afghanistan after the United States withdraws its troops? What is going on in the Donbass? How likely is it that any country boycotts the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing?
Forecasting the Future of the Russo-Ukrainian War, Saudi-Israeli Relations, and JCPOA
The future of the Russo-Ukrainian War and the US’ return to JCPOA? Also forecasting whether Saudi Arabia and Israel normalize relations in 2021.
Will Intense Fighting Resume in the Russo-Ukrainian War by October?
Volume 11 of Metaculus Mondays: Amid rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine and an increasing troop build up, is the conflict about to intensify?
Will Conflict Break Out Between Russia and Ukraine?
In Episode 9 of the Global Guessing Weekly we discuss the origins of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, the recent heightened tensions between the two nations, and where we think the conflict will end up this year.