The Constraints on Peace
21 days after Russia invaded Ukraine, what is the likelihood of a peace deal in the near-future and what factors are driving the forecast?
Forecasts
We provide our own in-depth forecasts, examining critical elements such as "base-rates" and relevant constraints, and implementing best-practices. The questions are largely tied to geopolitical importance.
24 posts
You Can't Ignore the Consequences of Great Power Conflict
Twelve days into Russia's invasion of Ukraine, we begin our effort forecasting the war.
Updates and Recasts: Iran Nuclear Deal, Russo-Ukrainian War, Israel-Gaza Conflict, and More
Volume 17 of Metaculus Mondays: Iran Nuclear Deal; Russo-Ukrainian War; Israel-Gaza Conflict; North Korea ICBM Tests; Xinjiang Camps; and Yemen Civil War.
Live Forecast Updates: The Future of the 2021 Israel-Palestine Conflict
Live forecast updates from Metaculus Mondays Volume 15. How many Palestinians will be killed in the conflict by 2022? How many rockets will be fired at Israel?
Updates and Recasts: From Israel-Palestine to Lab Leak and Everything in-Between
In volume 16 of Metaculus Mondays, we review past forecasts on the Israel-Palestine conflict, lab leak hypothesis, US' return to the JCPOA, Scottish independence, and Saudi-Israeli normalization.
🎙️Forecasting the future of the 2021 Israel-Palestine Crisis
In this special crossover episode of Metaculus Mondays and the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast, we forecast the future of the 2021 Israel-Palestine crisis.
400 Million Nigerians by 2050? Scottish Indepdence by 2025? North Korea Missile Test by 2022?
Volume 14 of Metaculus Mondays: Scottish Independence by 2024? North Korea ICBM Test by 2022? 400M Nigerians by 2050?
Will Scotland Hold an Independence Referendum by 2024? Plus EU Borrowing and Yemen Civil War
Will Scotland Hold an Independence Referendum by 2024? Also forecasting whether the EU borrows >€50B in 2027 and the future of the Yemen Civil War.
Forecasting the Future of the Russo-Ukrainian War, Saudi-Israeli Relations, and JCPOA
The future of the Russo-Ukrainian War and the US’ return to JCPOA? Also forecasting whether Saudi Arabia and Israel normalize relations in 2021.
Will Intense Fighting Resume in the Russo-Ukrainian War by October?
Volume 11 of Metaculus Mondays: Amid rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine and an increasing troop build up, is the conflict about to intensify?
China Special: 2022 Olympic Boycott, Closing Uyghur Camps, Next Person on Moon
Forecasting whether the Five Eyes and Quad countries boycott the 2022 Beijing Olympics, China closes the Uyghur Camps in 2021, and China lands the next person on the moon.
How We Planned to Forecast the Suez Canal Crisis
In this week's episode of Metaculus Mondays, we review how we would have forecasted the end of the Suez Canal Crisis caused by the Ever Given ship.