We provide our own in-depth forecasts, examining critical elements such as "base-rates" and relevant constraints, and implementing best-practices. The questions are largely tied to geopolitical importance.
Volume 17 of Metaculus Mondays: Iran Nuclear Deal; Russo-Ukrainian War; Israel-Gaza Conflict; North Korea ICBM Tests; Xinjiang Camps; and Yemen Civil War.
Live forecast updates from Metaculus Mondays Volume 15. How many Palestinians will be killed in the conflict by 2022? How many rockets will be fired at Israel?
In volume 16 of Metaculus Mondays, we review past forecasts on the Israel-Palestine conflict, lab leak hypothesis, US' return to the JCPOA, Scottish independence, and Saudi-Israeli normalization.
In this special crossover episode of Metaculus Mondays and the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast, we forecast the future of the 2021 Israel-Palestine crisis.
Forecasting whether the Five Eyes and Quad countries boycott the 2022 Beijing Olympics, China closes the Uyghur Camps in 2021, and China lands the next person on the moon.