Live Forecast Updates: The Future of the 2021 Israel-Palestine Conflict
Live Updates

Live Forecast Updates: The Future of the 2021 Israel-Palestine Conflict

Clay Graubard
Andrew Eaddy
Clay Graubard, Andrew Eaddy

Table of Contents

This article was first published on May 19, 2021.

On Monday May 18, 2021, we made a series of forecasts related to the 2021 Israel - Palestine Crisis. Here is how our forecasts and the data have changed since.

Forecasts

Key Signals

6/23: Gaza ceasefire under strain as Israel and Hamas feud over rebuilding

Gaza ceasefire under strain as Israel and Hamas feud over rebuilding
Hamas rejected a UN proposal to fund reconstruction.

6/21: Metaculus Mondays, Volume 17

Updated Forecasts: Iran Nuclear Deal, Russo-Ukrainian War, Israel-Gaza Conflict, and More
Volume 17 of Metaculus Mondays: Iran Nuclear Deal; Russo-Ukrainian War; Israel-Gaza Conflict; North Korea ICBM Tests; Xinjiang Camps; and Yemen Civil War.

6/15: Israeli Planes Bomb Gaza Just Days Into New Government

Israeli Planes Bomb Gaza Just Days Into New Government
After a day of rising tensions, which saw a far-right march in Jerusalem and incendiary balloons launched from Gaza, Israel’s new coalition government ordered airstrikes against Hamas.

5/30: Israel Moves Toward Coalition Deal That Could Sideline Netanyahu

Israel Moves Toward Coalition Deal That Could Sideline Netanyahu
Naftali Bennett, an ultranationalist, and Yair Lapid, a centrist, have moved closer to forming a fragile coalition government that would oust the longtime prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu.

5/24: Metaculus Mondays, Volume 16

Forecast Updates and Recasts: From Israel-Palestine to Lab Leak and Everything in-Between
Volume 16 of Metaculus Mondays: Updates and Recasts on some of our most important geopolitical forecasts to date.

5/21: Netanyahu: Any Gaza rocket fire will be met with ‘whole new level of force’

Netanyahu: Any Gaza rocket fire will be met with ‘whole new level of force’
PM says rules have changed, Israel to take much tougher stance against Hamas; Gantz sees urgent need for diplomacy, peace built on ‘rubble’ of Hamas leaders’ homes

5/21: Hamas' Haniyeh vows to destabilize Jerusalem, thanks Iran for support

Hamas’ Haniyeh vows to destabilize Jerusalem, thanks Iran for support
Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh suggested that Hamas’s current objective is to continue fueling the ongoing violence in Jerusalem, just hours after the ceasefire came into effect.

5/20: Israel Security Cabinet approves Gaza ceasefire

Israel and Hamas approve ceasefire in Gaza
Hamas officials have also expressed support for an end to the fighting.
  • Israel has an upcoming election in October, which could increase odds of flare-up.
  • A ceasefire in early 2008 ultimately fell apart, leading to the '08-'09 Gaza War indicating a 33% base-rate for renewed fighting post-ceasefires in our reference class years. We'll lower the base-rate to 25% due to time of year (in '08 the renewed fighting came after 6 months; in 2021 that would put us at the end of November).
  • Given the already high number of rockets fired, the base-rate of post-conflict rockets is 57 which would be within 100 rockets of 4,500 positive resolution. Moreover, the ceasefire does not go in effect until 7pm Eastern (2am tomorrow in Israel), we don't have a fully updated count as of now, and rockets are still be fired (4pm Eastern) at Israel.

5/20: Hamas official: We have no shortage of missiles; ceasefire is close

Hamas official: We have no shortage of missiles; ceasefire is close
* * *

5/18: Forecasting the future of the 2021 Israel-Palestine Crisis

🎙️ Forecasting the Future of the 2021 Israel-Palestine Crisis
How many Palestinians will be killed by 2022? How many rockets will be fired at Israel?

Metaculus Forecasts

Resolution Data

Base Rates