Public Health and Pandemics

Global Guessing's predictions and analyses on public health crises of international concern. As of now, we are primarily focused on the coronavirus pandemic, and in particular the threat of COVID-20.
10 posts
Public Health and Pandemics
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🎙️ Forecasting the Omicron Variant with Juan Cambeiro

Clay Graubard
Michał Dubrawski
Andrew Eaddy
Clay Graubard, Michał Dubrawski, Andrew Eaddy
In a special Global Guessing podcast episode, Superforecaster and Metaculus Analyst Juan Cambeiro walks us through his analysis of Omicron and his five relevant forecasts for understanding the variant.…
The Right Side of Maybe
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✅ Juan Cambeiro, the Top Pandemic Forecaster on Good Judgement Open

Clay Graubard
Andrew Eaddy
Michał Dubrawski
Clay Graubard, Andrew Eaddy, Michał Dubrawski
Juan Cambeiro on best practices, forecasting benefits, and lessons from his predictions on mortgage interest rates, the 2021 Summer Olympics, and US COVID Deaths.…
The Right Side of Maybe
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✅ How Tom Liptay Beat the Experts in Pandemic Forecasting

Andrew Eaddy
Clay Graubard
Michał Dubrawski
Andrew Eaddy, Clay Graubard, Michał Dubrawski
In episode 3 of The Right Side of Maybe, Tom talks about his COVID forecasting competition against experts, plus his recommendations for new forecasters.…
The Right Side of Maybe
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✅ How David Manheim Forecasted COVID-19 Vaccines

Clay Graubard
Andrew Eaddy
Michał Dubrawski
Clay Graubard, Andrew Eaddy, Michał Dubrawski
In Episode 2 of The Right Side of Maybe, we talk with Dr. David Manheim on his forecasting background, his tips for improvement, the concept of minimal valuable forecasts, and a deep dive into his COVID prediction.…
Predicting the Origins of SARS-CoV-2 and the Future of the Yemen Civil War
Metaculus Mondays
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Predicting the Origins of SARS-CoV-2 and the Future of the Yemen Civil War

Andrew Eaddy
Clay Graubard
Andrew Eaddy, Clay Graubard
Will North Korea Test an ICBM in 2021? + The Future of Europe's Vaccination Effort
Metaculus Mondays
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Will North Korea Test an ICBM in 2021? + The Future of Europe's Vaccination Effort

Clay Graubard
Andrew Eaddy
Clay Graubard, Andrew Eaddy
Will COVID Variants Dominate? And the Likelihood of WW3 and Nuclear Warfare
Metaculus Mondays
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Will COVID Variants Dominate? And the Likelihood of WW3 and Nuclear Warfare

Andrew Eaddy
Clay Graubard
Andrew Eaddy, Clay Graubard
Correct Predictions, Correct Method? COVID Variants Spread Globally and de Sousa Wins in Portugal
Public Health and Pandemics
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Correct Predictions, Correct Method? COVID Variants Spread Globally and de Sousa Wins in Portugal

Clay Graubard
Andrew Eaddy
Clay Graubard, Andrew Eaddy
Live Update: Where have the Mutated COVID-19 Variants Spread?
Public Health and Pandemics
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Live Update: Where have the Mutated COVID-19 Variants Spread?

Clay Graubard
Andrew Eaddy
Clay Graubard, Andrew Eaddy
We Examined the U.K.'s Flight Data to Predict Where The Mutant COVID Strain Likely Went
Public Health and Pandemics
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We Examined the U.K.'s Flight Data to Predict Where The Mutant COVID Strain Likely Went

Andrew Eaddy
Clay Graubard
Andrew Eaddy, Clay Graubard