? A Conversation on Media Narratives and Forecasting the Russo-Ukrainian Crisis with Maxim Lott
Maxim Lott on media narratives and the military, political, and economic situation in Russia in the Russo-Ukrainian War.
Clay Graubard
Clay majored in Economics and International Relations (IR) at the University of Pennsylvania, and is pursuing a master's in IR at Oxford.
66 posts
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The Constraints on Peace
21 days after Russia invaded Ukraine, what is the likelihood of a peace deal in the near-future and what factors are driving the forecast?
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Russia-Ukraine Commodities Monitor 001: Wheat and Aluminum
Welcome to the Global Guessing Russia-Ukraine Commodities Monitor (RUCM): Forecasts on Russia-Ukraine and their impact on commodities.
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You Can't Ignore the Consequences of Great Power Conflict
Twelve days into Russia's invasion of Ukraine, we begin our effort forecasting the war.
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Russo-Ukrainian War: Forecasts and Resources
Useful resources on Russia's war against Ukraine, including forecasts, information sources, and analyses.
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Tom Chivers on Nuance, Numeracy, and Forecasting in News Media
The lack of nuance in mainstream news, Tom's views on forecasting and prediction markets in media, and more.
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Tina Fordham on Political Risk, Geopolitical Forecasting, and Top Risks of 2022
Veteran of the political risk industry Tina Fordham discusses political risk, geopolitical forecasting, and the top risks of 2022.
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Forecasting the Omicron Variant with Juan Cambeiro
In a special Global Guessing podcast episode, Superforecaster and Metaculus Analyst Juan Cambeiro walks us through his analysis of Omicron and his five relevant forecasts for understanding the variant.
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A Year of Global Guessing: The GGWP Finale
In the Weekly Podcast finale, we recount the past year of Global Guessing and go over our exciting plans for 2022 and beyond!
?️Manas Chawla on Forecast Accuracy in the Geopolitical Risk Industry
Manas Chawla on founding London Politica and the role of accurate forecasts in the geopolitical risk industry.
?️David McCullough on Forecasting Adoption and Question Quality
Superforecaster and Managing Director of Government Operations for Good Judgement Inc. on Forecasting Adoption, Question Quality, and more.
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David Manheim on Pandemic Preparedness and Vaccine Challenge Trials
David Manheim on pandemic preparedness, vaccine challenge trials, quantified forecasting in governments, and real-money prediction markets.