Interviews • 23 min read ? A Conversation on Media Narratives and Forecasting the Russo-Ukrainian Crisis with Maxim Lott Maxim Lott on media narratives and the military, political, and economic situation in Russia in the Russo-Ukrainian War.
public Russo-Ukrainian War • 12 min read The Constraints on Peace 21 days after Russia invaded Ukraine, what is the likelihood of a peace deal in the near-future and what factors are driving the forecast?
public Russo-Ukrainian War • 5 min read Russia-Ukraine Commodities Monitor 001: Wheat and Aluminum Welcome to the Global Guessing Russia-Ukraine Commodities Monitor (RUCM): Forecasts on Russia-Ukraine and their impact on commodities.
public Russo-Ukrainian War • 23 min read You Can't Ignore the Consequences of Great Power Conflict Twelve days into Russia's invasion of Ukraine, we begin our effort forecasting the war.
public Russo-Ukrainian War • 4 min read Russo-Ukrainian War: Forecasts and Resources Useful resources on Russia's war against Ukraine, including forecasts, information sources, and analyses.
public Interviews • 1 min read Tom Chivers on Nuance, Numeracy, and Forecasting in News Media The lack of nuance in mainstream news, Tom's views on forecasting and prediction markets in media, and more.
public Interviews • 2 min read Tina Fordham on Political Risk, Geopolitical Forecasting, and Top Risks of 2022 Veteran of the political risk industry Tina Fordham discusses political risk, geopolitical forecasting, and the top risks of 2022.
public Interviews • 3 min read Forecasting the Omicron Variant with Juan Cambeiro In a special Global Guessing podcast episode, Superforecaster and Metaculus Analyst Juan Cambeiro walks us through his analysis of Omicron and his five relevant forecasts for understanding the variant.
public Global Guessing Weekly • 1 min read A Year of Global Guessing: The GGWP Finale In the Weekly Podcast finale, we recount the past year of Global Guessing and go over our exciting plans for 2022 and beyond!
Global Guessing Weekly • 1 min read ?️Manas Chawla on Forecast Accuracy in the Geopolitical Risk Industry Manas Chawla on founding London Politica and the role of accurate forecasts in the geopolitical risk industry.
Global Guessing Weekly • 1 min read ?️David McCullough on Forecasting Adoption and Question Quality Superforecaster and Managing Director of Government Operations for Good Judgement Inc. on Forecasting Adoption, Question Quality, and more.
public Global Guessing Weekly • 2 min read David Manheim on Pandemic Preparedness and Vaccine Challenge Trials David Manheim on pandemic preparedness, vaccine challenge trials, quantified forecasting in governments, and real-money prediction markets.