Veteran of the political risk industry Tina Fordham discusses political risk, geopolitical forecasting, and the top risks of 2022.

Show Notes

  • 00:00 - Tina's Background and Career
  • 06:00 - The Evolution of Political Risk
  • 11:30 - Tina's Vox Populi Framework for Global Political Risk
  • 22:30 - The Limits of Quantified Forecasting (+ What Investors Care About)
  • 31:00 - Tracking Risk and Track Records in Political Risk
  • 37:20 - The Difficulty with Track Records
  • 38:16 - Tina's Top Risks for 2022
  • 44:29 - What About Aliens?
  • 47:20 - On Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022
  • 50:40 - Book and Reading Recommendations
  • 54:20 - Where to Find Tina + Outro

A Conversation on Forecasting with Tina Fordham

And we’re back! In this year’s first podcast, we are speaking with Tina Fordham, Partner & Head of Global Political Strategy at Avonhurst, a London-based advisory business.

Tina is one of the most veteran players in the political risk industry, beginning her career at Eurasia Group where she launched Eurasia Group's financial markets business, including leading the Lehman Brothers-Eurasia Group index—the first political risk index on Wall Street. While there she also led the roll-out of Eurasia Group's European business.

Since then, Tina’s career has included roles as Managing Director, Chief Global Political Analyst at Citigroup (the first position of its kind on Wall Street), as well as Member of the High-Level Panel for Women's Economic Empowerment—the first-ever UN High-Level Panel dedicated to promoting Women's Economic Empowerment. She also created her own framework for processing political risk, Vox Populi, which was born in the post-Arab Spring era that we will talk about in-depth.

Today we will discuss Tina’s impressive career, her risk framework, and some specific forecasts she has made in her many roles as well as her thoughts on quantified forecasting and much more. We are very excited about this interview, and we think you will enjoy this one!

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Andrew Eaddy
Andrew studied Political Science and Arabic at Haverford College and currently works as an investment banker in New York City.

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