? A Conversation on Media Narratives and Forecasting the Russo-Ukrainian Crisis with Maxim Lott
Maxim Lott on media narratives and the military, political, and economic situation in Russia in the Russo-Ukrainian War.
Russia-Ukraine Commodities Monitor 001: Wheat and Aluminum
Welcome to the Global Guessing Russia-Ukraine Commodities Monitor (RUCM): Forecasts on Russia-Ukraine and their impact on commodities.
You Can't Ignore the Consequences of Great Power Conflict
Twelve days into Russia's invasion of Ukraine, we begin our effort forecasting the war.
Russo-Ukrainian War: Forecasts and Resources
Useful resources on Russia's war against Ukraine, including forecasts, information sources, and analyses.
Tom Chivers on Nuance, Numeracy, and Forecasting in News Media
The lack of nuance in mainstream news, Tom's views on forecasting and prediction markets in media, and more.
Forecasting the Omicron Variant with Juan Cambeiro
In a special Global Guessing podcast episode, Superforecaster and Metaculus Analyst Juan Cambeiro walks us through his analysis of Omicron and his five relevant forecasts for understanding the variant.
A Year of Global Guessing: The GGWP Finale
In the Weekly Podcast finale, we recount the past year of Global Guessing and go over our exciting plans for 2022 and beyond!
?️Manas Chawla on Forecast Accuracy in the Geopolitical Risk Industry
Manas Chawla on founding London Politica and the role of accurate forecasts in the geopolitical risk industry.
?️David McCullough on Forecasting Adoption and Question Quality
Superforecaster and Managing Director of Government Operations for Good Judgement Inc. on Forecasting Adoption, Question Quality, and more.
David Manheim on Pandemic Preparedness and Vaccine Challenge Trials
David Manheim on pandemic preparedness, vaccine challenge trials, quantified forecasting in governments, and real-money prediction markets.
On the Wrong Side of Maybe with the Iran Nuclear Deal
We forecasted a 30% chance the US returns to the JCPOA in 2021, but what if we were very, VERY wrong? What would that look like? We made our first pre-mortem to gain insight.
John Fowler on International Intrigue and the limits of Forecasting
John Fowler, co-founder and former Diplomat, on founding International Intrigue, the benefits and limitations of Forecasting, and the geopolitics of the East.