In a special Global Guessing podcast episode, Superforecaster and Metaculus Analyst Juan Cambeiro walks us through his analysis of Omicron and his five relevant forecasts for understanding the variant.
We forecasted a 30% chance the US returns to the JCPOA in 2021, but what if we were very, VERY wrong? What would that look like? We made our first pre-mortem to gain insight.
John Fowler, co-founder and former Diplomat, on founding International Intrigue, the benefits and limitations of Forecasting, and the geopolitics of the East.
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