Election Forecasts | Global Election Analysis and Retrospective

Metaculus Mondays • 9 min read

Will Scotland Hold an Independence Referendum by 2024? Plus EU Borrowing and Yemen Civil War

Will Scotland Hold an Independence Referendum by 2024? Also forecasting whether the EU borrows >€50B in 2027 and the future of the Yemen Civil War.

Clay Graubard & Andrew Eaddy • 03 May 2021

Elections • 4 min read

Once Wrong, Now Right: Prediction on Niger's Next President

On Tuesday, Niger's electoral commission announced the provisional winner of the election for President. Was our forecast correct? What can we improve for next time? And what does the next president mean for the region?

Andrew Eaddy & Clay Graubard • 25 Feb 2021

Public Health and Pandemics • 4 min read

Correct Predictions, Correct Method? COVID Variants Spread Globally and de Sousa Wins in Portugal

Evaluating our recent correct predictions on the spread of the mutated UK COVID-19 variant and on the winner of the 2021 Portugal Election for President.

Clay Graubard & Andrew Eaddy • 28 Jan 2021

Elections • 10 min read

President of Portugal Nearly Certain for Re-Election This Week Unless COVID Kills Him. Literally.

Based on 50,000 simulations, we predict that President Marcelo de Sousa of Portugal is nearly certain to win re-election in the upcoming election.

Clay Graubard & Andrew Eaddy • 18 Jan 2021

Elections • 4 min read

After closer than expected result, Niger heads to second round vote for President

On December 27th, 2020, Niger held its election for President and National Assembly. The election has been followed by violence and is going to a second round vote. Here's what you need to know.

Clay Graubard & Andrew Eaddy • 04 Jan 2021

Elections • 10 min read

In First Peaceful Transfer of Power, Bazoum is Highly Favored to Become President of Niger

In the upcoming 2020 Nigerien General Election, Mohamed Bazoum is highly favored to win based on a Bayesian analysis. Read why Bazoum is favored and why the election matters regionally and globally.

Andrew Eaddy & Clay Graubard • 24 Dec 2020

Elections • 8 min read

Ghana Election 2020: Violence and Disruption Follows a Close, Contested Vote

On December 7th, 2020, Ghana held its election for President and Parliament. The election has unfortunately been followed by violence and dispute. Here's what you need to know in 5 minutes.

Clay Graubard & Andrew Eaddy • 11 Dec 2020

Elections • 14 min read

In 93,316 out of 100,000 simulations, President Akufo-Addo of Ghana was re-elected in General Election

Nana Akufo-Addo, the incumbent, is clearly favored to defeat ex-president John Dramani Mahama in the 2020 Ghana General Election, and is the over 58 times more likely to win the presidency in December 7th's vote.

Andrew Eaddy & Clay Graubard • 06 Dec 2020

Elections • 4 min read

What happened in Burkina Faso's 2020 General Election

Everything you need to know about the November 22, 2020, Burkinabe election in 3 minutes or less.

Clay Graubard & Andrew Eaddy • 30 Nov 2020

Elections • 20 min read

Roch Kabore Predicted to Remain President of Burkina Faso

Despite a spike in terrorism and unified second-round opposition, Kabore is clearly favored to win the upcoming November Burkinabe election.

Andrew Eaddy & Clay Graubard • 14 Nov 2020

Russo-Ukrainian War: Forecasts and Resources

Elections