When the Suez Canal got blocked by the Ever Given shipping vessel a global trade crisis began, costing the global economy $10 billion a day. Knowing when this crisis would end had immense valuable, but predicting the clearing was easier said than done—as our own forecast showed. One person who got it done was Peter Hurford, a top-100 forecaster on Metaculus and Forecast App, and the co-CEO of the think tank Rethink Priorities. Peter’s forecast was more accurate than most, letting him turn his foresight into triple-digit returns.
In the inaugural episode of The Right Side of Maybe—a new podcast where we learn from and about elite forecasters—we talked to Peter about the method behind his Ever Given forecast and the ways in which he leveraged it for profit on Polymarket. We also talked to Peter about his background in forecasting and recent experience with prediction markets, as well as some of the most important areas of psychology and science where Peter thinks forecasters can improve.
Peter imparted important forecasting wisdom and provided us with an in-depth walk through of his Ever Given prediction, making for an informative and engaging first episode of The Right Side of Maybe.
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Find Peter Hurford
Rethink Priorities (Think Tank): https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/
Open Model Project: https://www.openmodelproject.org/
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Just look up Global Guessing, Global Guessing Podcast, or Global Guessing Weekly Podcast to find the episode! New episodes might take 6-24 hours to show up, so make sure to subscribe to the podcast so you'll know when the new episode goes live.
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