Russo-Ukrainian War: Forecasts and Resources
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Apr 25, 2021 1 min read

🎙️Sources of Forecasting Error, Peru's Next President, and War in Donbass

Discussing our recent forecast on war between Russia and Ukraine in Donbass, the BIN Model for forecasting, and our upcoming forecast on Peru's next president.

What are the core components of forecasts and how can those pinpoint areas for improvement? How can those principles be applied to forecasting war between Russia and Ukraine in the Donbass or the winner of the upcoming presidential election in Peru where far-left faces off against far-right?

This week, Andrew and Clay are flying solo in episode 10 of the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast and discussed:

  • Our recent forecast on renewed fighting in the Donbass region between Russia and Ukraine and our reactions to recent news of Russian troops withdrawal;
  • A deep dive into the "Bias, Information, Noise: The BIN Model of Forecasting" paper by Ville Satopää, Marat Salikhov, Philip Tetlock, and Barb Mellers; and
  • The situation and our upcoming forecast on Peru's 2021 election for President.

And if you have any questions for next week's special episode with the CEO of Metaculus Gaia Dempsey, make sure to comment below or reach out to us on social media!

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Clay Graubard
Clay majored in Economics and International Relations (IR) at the University of Pennsylvania, and is pursuing a master's in IR at Oxford.

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