Special Volume: Updating and Reviewing our 15+ Prior Forecasts
Updating every prediction from the Metaculus Mondays series so far to challenge past beliefs and bolster future predictions.
Forecasts
We provide our own in-depth forecasts, examining critical elements such as "base-rates" and relevant constraints, and implementing best-practices. The questions are largely tied to geopolitical importance.
24 posts
Predicting the Origins of SARS-CoV-2 and the Future of the Yemen Civil War
Forecasting if SARS-CoV-2 originated and was released from a lab and how likely a 2021 Yemen peace deal and ceasefire is.
Will US Troops Stay in Afghanistan + Exit from the Eurozone by 2025?
In this week's volume of Metaculus Mondays we forecast if the United States will stay in Afghanistan and whether a Eurozone Member State will leave by 2025.
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia Normalize Relations Before 2022? + Starlink and Nuclear Deal
In the third volume of Metaculus Mondays, we forecast the likelihood of Israeli-Saudi normalization in 2021, update our Iran Nuclear Deal prediction, and more.
Iran Deal Likely Dead Until 2022, Major Wars of the 2020s + Virus Variants Revisited
In the second volume of Metaculus Mondays, we forecast the likelihood the United States rejoins the Iran Nuclear Deal, plus the likelihood of major wars and a prediction update on COVID variants.
Will COVID Variants Dominate? And the Likelihood of WW3 and Nuclear Warfare
In the inaugural volume of Metaculus Mondays, we tackle how the mutated COVID variants will spread in the United States, plus the likelihood of Nuclear and World War.
President of Portugal Nearly Certain for Re-Election This Week Unless COVID Kills Him. Literally.
Based on 50,000 simulations, we predict that President Marcelo de Sousa of Portugal is nearly certain to win re-election in the upcoming election.
After closer than expected result, Niger heads to second round vote for President
On December 27th, 2020, Niger held its election for President and National Assembly. The election has been followed by violence and is going to a second round vote. Here's what you need to know.
In First Peaceful Transfer of Power, Bazoum is Highly Favored to Become President of Niger
In the upcoming 2020 Nigerien General Election, Mohamed Bazoum is highly favored to win based on a Bayesian analysis. Read why Bazoum is favored and why the election matters regionally and globally.
We Examined the U.K.'s Flight Data to Predict Where The Mutant COVID Strain Likely Went
We examined outbound flight data from London Heathrow Airport to prediction where the British COVID mutation might spread.
In 93,316 out of 100,000 simulations, President Akufo-Addo of Ghana was re-elected in General Election
Nana Akufo-Addo, the incumbent, is clearly favored to defeat ex-president John Dramani Mahama in the 2020 Ghana General Election, and is the over 58 times more likely to win the presidency in December 7th's vote.
Roch Kabore Predicted to Remain President of Burkina Faso
Despite a spike in terrorism and unified second-round opposition, Kabore is clearly favored to win the upcoming November Burkinabe election.